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Predictability
2 min read · 397 words
Predictability is the property of an operator’s outputs being consistent enough that others can model them in advance.
The system the operator runs is being modeled, continuously, by everyone in regular contact with it. Family, colleagues, friends, romantic partners — all of them are running predictive models of what this operator does in given conditions. The accuracy of those models depends on how consistent the operator’s outputs are. The more consistent, the more predictable, the more the operator’s behavior can be relied upon.
The cultural narrative tends to frame predictability as boring or as constraining. The framing is partial. Predictability is one of the foundations of trust. The operator whose outputs cannot be modeled produces continuous low-grade anxiety in everyone they’re connected to, because no one can plan around what they will do. The operator whose outputs are reliably modeled — they show up when they say they will, they respond predictably to known inputs, their values produce consistent decisions — is easier to be in relationship with, easier to work with, easier to depend on. The cost of the predictability is some loss of spontaneity. The benefit is a more functional surrounding system.
The category to distinguish: predictable as in consistent and predictable as in rigid. The first means the outputs reliably match the underlying values, principles, and patterns. The operator’s response to a given input is what the input would warrant from this particular operator. The second means the outputs follow a script regardless of what the input actually is. The first is functional; the second is its own dysfunction.
From the chair: aim for the first kind. Be the operator whose outputs match what the operator’s actual values would produce, given the conditions that arrived. This requires having actual values, knowing what they are, and applying them consistently. The rigid kind — the script that runs regardless of input — is what happens when the operator hasn’t done the values work and is producing consistent output by following an external template.
The byproduct of the functional version: the operator becomes someone others can rely on. Not because they always do the same thing, but because what they do is reliably produced from who they are. This is what most relationships actually need from their participants. The predictability of character, not the predictability of script.